Chagas cardiomyopathy is associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. Precise estimates of the risk of developing cardiomyopathy among patients with the acute or indeterminate chronic forms of Chagas disease are lacking.
To estimate the risk of developing chronic cardiomyopathy in patients with acute and indeterminate chronic forms of Chagas disease.
A systematic search in the Cochrane Library, Embase, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Medline, and Web of Science Core Collection databases was conducted from October 8 to October 24, 2018. Studies published between January 1, 1946, and October 24, 2018, that were written in the English, Spanish, and Portuguese languages were included. Search terms included Chagas disease; development of cardiomyopathy; latency duration; and determinants of the Chagas latency period.
Longitudinal observational studies of participants diagnosed with the acute phase of Chagas infection or the indeterminate chronic form of Chagas disease who were followed up until the development of cardiomyopathy were included. Studies were excluded if they did not provide sufficient outcome data. Of 10 761 records initially screened, 32 studies met the criteria for analysis.
Critical appraisals of studies were performed using checklists from the Joanna Briggs Institute Reviewer's Manual, and data were collected from published studies. A random-effects meta-analysis was used to obtain pooled estimated annual rates. Data were analyzed from September 11 to December 4, 2019. This study followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline for the registration of the protocol, data collection and integrity, assessment of bias, and sensitivity analyses.
Main outcomes were defined as the composite of the development of any new arrhythmias or changes in electrocardiogram results, dilated cardiomyopathy and segmental wall motion abnormalities in echocardiogram results, and mortality associated with Chagas disease.
A total of 5005 records were screened for eligibility. Of those, 298 full-text articles were reviewed, and 178 of those articles were considered for inclusion in the quantitative synthesis. After exclusions, 32 studies that included longitudinal observational outcomes were selected for the analysis; 23 of those studies comprised patients with the indeterminate chronic form of Chagas disease, and 9 of those studies comprised patients in the acute phase of Chagas infection. The analysis indicated that the pooled estimated annual rate of cardiomyopathy development was 1.9% (95% CI, 1.3%-3.0%; I2 = 98.0%; τ2 [ln scale] = 0.9992) in patients with indeterminate chronic Chagas disease and 4.6% (95% CI, 2.7%-7.9%; I2 = 86.6%; τ2 [ln scale] = 0.4946) in patients with acute Chagas infection.
Patients with the indeterminate chronic form of Chagas disease had a significant annual risk of developing cardiomyopathy. The annual risk was more than double among patients in the acute phase of Chagas infection.

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