Risk of conversion to mild cognitive impairment or dementia among subjects with amyloid and tau pathology: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Abstract

Measurement of beta-amyloid (Aβ) and phosphorylated tau (p-tau) levels offers the potential for early detection of neurocognitive impairment. Still, the probability of developing a clinical syndrome in the presence of these protein changes (A+ and T+) remains unclear. By performing a systematic review and meta-analysis, we investigated the risk of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or dementia in the non-demented population with A+ and A- alone and in combination with T+ and T- as confirmed by PET or cerebrospinal fluid examination. A systematic search of prospective and retrospective studies investigating the association of Aβ and p-tau with cognitive decline was performed in three databases (MEDLINE via PubMed, EMBASE, and CENTRAL) on January 9, 2024. The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane QUIPS tool. Odds ratios (OR) and Hazard Ratios (HR) were pooled using a random-effects model. The effect of neurodegeneration was not studied due to its non-specific nature. A total of 18,162 records were found, and at the end of the selection process, data from 36 cohorts were pooled (n= 7,793). Compared to the unexposed group, the odds ratio (OR) for conversion to dementia in A+ MCI patients was 5.18 [95% CI 3.93; 6.81]. In A+ CU subjects, the OR for conversion to MCI or dementia was 5.79 [95% CI 2.88; 11.64]. Cerebrospinal fluid Aβ42 or Aβ42/40 analysis and amyloid PET imaging showed consistent results. The OR for conversion in A+T+ MCI subjects (11.60 [95% CI 7.96; 16.91]) was significantly higher than in A+T- subjects (2.73 [95% CI 1.65; 4.52]). The OR for A-T+ MCI subjects was non-significant (1.47 [95% CI 0.55; 3.92]). CU subjects with A+T+ status had a significantly higher OR for conversion (13.46 [95% CI 3.69; 49.11]) than A+T- subjects (2.04 [95% CI 0.70; 5.97]). Meta-regression showed that the ORs for Aβ exposure decreased with age in MCI. (beta = -0.04 [95% CI -0.03 to -0.083]). Identifying Aβ-positive individuals, irrespective of the measurement technique employed (CSF or PET), enables the detection of the most at-risk population before disease onset, or at least at a mild stage. The inclusion of tau status in addition to Aβ, especially in A+T+ cases, further refines the risk assessment. Notably, the higher odds ratio associated with Aβ decreases with age. The study was registered in PROSPERO (ID: CRD42021288100).

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